Southeast Alaska was hit with a severe drought in 2016’s fall. Subsistence crops such as wild berries were severely affected by hot, dry summers. The salmon hatcheries at Juneau were disrupted by warmer waters. In 2018, Tongass fires were twice as common as usual.
The U.S. had declared an extreme drought by 2019. The Drought Monitor had already declared the region in extreme drought by 2019. Rick Thoman, a climate expert at the University of Alaska Fairbanks says that dry spells aren’t unusual, even in a temperate forest. The drought that occurred between 2016 and 2019 was however unique.
span style=”font weight: 400 This was a dry, warm drought. He said that this is very different. “Droughts that lasted from the 1950s through the 1970s and even the early ’80s were dry, cold droughts. That matters .”
Although there have been longer droughts than others in the past, they have always been accompanied with below-average temperatures. 2016 was the Southeast’s hottest year.
A new retro report is now available. Thoman and his collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association look at the impact of the 2016-2019 drought within the context of past droughts and future projections.
More severe droughts
Andy Hoell, a NOAA research meteorologist, and coauthor of the report, stated that rising temperatures are changing Southeast droughts.
He said, “Now we’re witnessing these droughts which are so much more warmer to the tune like three, four, or five degrees.”
The report states that the drought of 2016-2019 saw a decrease in precipitation. This is not due to climate change. However, scientists believe that the warming was caused by climate change and that it will continue. Climate models predict that the Southeast will experience a 6 degree increase in temperature by 2050. This is a significant change because higher temperatures lead to more evaporation.
Droughts are associated with higher temperatures. This causes a gap between the amount of water falling from the sky and the amount that makes it to the ground, lakes, streams, and plants. The risk of wildfires increases when things dry out faster.
High temperatures can also lead to snow droughts. This happens when there is less mountain snowpack. This can reduce freshwater supplies over time, and increase stream temperatures during snowmelt in the spring or summer, which can harm fisheries.
Many plants and animals in Southeast’s temperate forest cannot survive prolonged, dry periods. They are adapted to heavy rains and a stable snowpack. Southeast’s residents are also adaptable to heavy rains and stable snowpack.
Preparing to drought in the wetter Southeast
The 2016-2019 drought saw water levels in reservoirs and lakes reach record lows. The Southeast was forced to reduce its water use. Wrangell, Haines imposed restrictions on water usage, and areas that depend on hydropower, such as Juneau, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla, faced rising energy costs. Some switched to diesel generators.
The drought demonstrated that water-related infrastructure can fail during droughts.
Thoman stated that it wasn’t like there had been drought in the rainforest. “The main reason this drought was more severe had nothing to do the amount of rain falling from the sky. It was due to changes in society span>
The Southeast is becoming wetter. Precipitation could rise as high as 14% by midcentury. Thoman warns that this won’t necessarily mean less droughts. According to some projections, climate change could lead to more distinct dry and wet seasons in the Southeast. Extreme wet seasons may be counterbalanced by dry periods, especially during the summer.
Thoman stated that 160 inches of rain could be possible in Ketchikan each year. “But, if you get only five inches between June-August, that’s going be a drought in the Tongass span>
Hoell hopes that the report will be useful in helping communities to prepare for future droughts. It emphasizes the importance of water storage and hydropower, as well as raising awareness about water conservation.
He stressed that there could be another drought at any moment.
He said that the rain could stop and return to levels of 2017, 2018, or 2017. The thing is that you don’t usually care about something unless it’s actually happening .”
