Bristol Bay should see relatively solid sockeye runs this season however, they’re not expected to be as strong as the record-breaking run of last year’s harvest.
More than 50 million sockeye are expected returning to bay as per the official state predictions for 2023’s fishing season. Escapement total is expected to exceed 13 million with an estimated 37 million fish to catch.
It’s considerably less than last year’s and is also less than the average of the past 10 years. If we look a bit further back the run this summer is likely to be around 40% higher than the average of the bay’s longest-term average.
The University of Washington produced its own forecast for the Bristol Bay 2023 season.
The quality of the salmon returns differs across the different river systems. those in Nushagak District, located on the west bank of the Bay, has witnessed some of the largest salmon runs and the highest yields in recent times.
“I believe the reason there are such huge flows within the Nushagak is that the warm winters are able to provide a longer period of growth,” said Tim Sands who is the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s managing scientist for the region, at a recent presentation in Dillingham. “So there’s that additional time of growth that provides more food available for the fish to consume. And they grow a bit larger. As they grow, they’ll be able to go out into the ocean. They’re more competitive, and they are able to survive at a greater rate.”
The 2023 commercial fishing outlook department also warned fishermen about the under-reporting of the king salmon they catch and advised tenders to expect to be checked to ensure that they have not been formally documented as king salmon.
Here’s a summary of the forecasts for this summer and the regulations of each district.
Nushagak
It is estimated that the Nushagak District is predicted to have 16.3 million sockeye during this season The run will be nearly evenly divided between fish that stay between two or three years at sea. In the case of Wood River, it is expected to see 8 million sockeye. The Nushagak’s number is 7 million while the Igushik is expected to have nearly 2 million.
King salmon that are low in the Nushagak River. the Nushagak River, which prompted on the Department of Fish and Game to declare them a stock of concern in the fall of last year.
In an effort to protect King salmon To protect king salmon, in an effort to save king salmon, the Board of Fisheries approved 3 triggers with one of which only the district has to meet in order to allow the season to begin.
The latest date the district will begin operations is the 28th of June. However, the new escapement goals will mean that the managers are likely to control the fishery with more caution as opposed to previous seasons because regulations permit the sockeye to have more escape.
Sands stated that triggers inform the department when to begin fishing and the updated escapement goals define how long they will are fishing throughout the season, as well as how many breaks they have to take to safeguard kings.
“My aim will be to limit the amount of escapement of the Wood River below 3 million people escaping the Nushagak River to less than 2 million. I’m also trying to raise enough chum and king salmon to the Nushagak River to ensure that we can begin climbing out of the hole of concern that we’re in.” said the official.
The triggers for open-water fishing are as they are:
- The Nushagak River, around 420,000 sockeyes, which is 6 percent of the forecasted population, are projected to pass the sonar.
- The Wood River, once 800,000 sockeye, which is 10 percent of the forecast, are projected over the tower of counting.
- If none of these triggers is satisfied The season could begin on the 28th of June.
In the course of the presentation, when asked what the department was planning to do with the results of those runs Sands explained that they planned to utilize as many sources as they could.
“Aerial survey is definitely part of it,” he said. “We’re going to be testing boats in the district. Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute] is managing this project, subsistence harvest. What we can find that can help us make that choice, we’ll utilize.”
The district’s triggers can delay commercial fishing until June. However, the department has said that even after the fishing season is over, managers will be working to balance commercial fishing with the release of kings Chum, and sockeye during the entire season. Set net fishermen can expect closures during in the middle of July and openings for drifts will be scheduled so that kings as well as other chum species to move through the commercial area.
Chum runs along the Nushagak have also been incredibly low. They haven’t yet reached the goal of escapement in the past three years. Sands added that the department thought about recommending the species be is a species of in danger last fall, but ultimately, they believed that the chum was not eligible. The department, however Fish and Game is soliciting fishermen to stay clear of areas that could attract larger numbers of kings or Chum.
“If we don’t meet our an escape goal for chum salmon in within the next 3 years we’ll be discussing a chum salmon stocks of concern which will be more restricting than what we’re doing currently for kings, since it will be a sign that what we’ve been doing to protect kings did not work to safeguard chums.” Sands said.
Other changes to the regulations include increasing the distance between nets set to the shoreline on Ekuk beach.
“We’re working to create an image of the new coordinates,” Sands said. “So drifters will be able locate the coordinates in their plotters and determine how far offshore the buoys could be. Then, set netters are able to make adjustments too.”
When the coordinates are set, they will be published on the department’s website as well as on District’s maps.
Togiak
Togiak is predicted to have 680,000 sockeye. This is less than the average of recent years, however slightly higher than average over the long-term. The estimated harvest is around 500 000 fish.
The date of transfer to transfer Togiak permit holders was changedat the last Board of Fisheries meeting. The date was previously July 17. Permit holders who’ve fished other areas of the bay cannot be fishing on Togiak District. Togiak District until midpoint of the escape goal has been attained. The first time fishermen who have started fishing in Togiak aren’t allowed to be fishing in the other districts within the bay until the midpoint has been achieved.
Although it is true that the Nushagak is one of the rivers in Bristol Bay that still has an escape goal for king salmon The state’s outlook states Togiak’s king salmon runs are predicted to be weak as a result of a pattern that has developed for the last several years. Fishermen are likely to see a reduction in their daily fishing schedule in the final two days of June, for Togiak River. Togiak River section.
Naknek-Kvichak
The Naknek-Kvichak River is predicted to have 18 million sockeye during the summer. It is estimated that the Kvichak River is forecasted to have an average of 8 million sockeye. Meanwhile, the Naknek could have more than 6 million, while the Alagnak forecast is for 4 million.
It will offer four day openings a week until June 23, and after that managers will plan openers according to the sockeye race.
The district is also subject to the new regulations for this year. One of them is that people can now use the internet to apply for subsistence salmon permits on fishing on the Naknek River. Subsistence fishermen can only fish using set gillnets within the designated harvest areas within the Naknek, Alagnak and Wood Rivers.
The Board of Fisheries also approved an additional subsection to the Naknek River special harvest area which permits commercial fishing to be conducted there when the Naknek River’s escaping has reached the midpoint of the goal range and is predicted to surpass the upper-end goal. The boundary line coordinates for the Kvichak along with Naknek segments has been altered to be aligned with the district as at Johnson Hill.
Egegik
The forecast for Egegik is 11 million sockeyes, with over 9 million sockeye available to catch. The majority of the run is predicted to consist of 1-3 fish which is salmon who spend a year in freshwater, and the next three at sea.
The season in Egegik will begin with three days of fishing per week until June 16, allowing kingfishers to flee, according to the forecast. Following that, the department will set up additional fishing openers according to the extent of the run of sockeye.
Ugashik
Ugashik District is predicted to produce about 3 million sockeyes and bringing the available catch up to 2.5 million. About half of the run will consist of just 1-2 fish. In the coming summer, the end of time schedule of the year for Ugashik will be synchronized with other districts of this fishery’s East Side.
KDLG’s Christina McDermott contributed reporting to this report.
