Well, if you’ve spent the last few days complaining that you feel cooler than normal during the summer in Alaska during the summer, you’re on the right track.
A long-lasting snowfall and a cloudy day led to temperatures of 3.5 degrees below the average throughout the state from March to May.
National Weather Service climate researcher Brian Brettschneider — back to an Ask a Climatologist segment The range of temperatures he gave us was between 1 and 2 degrees below average in Juneau and 2-3 degrees Anchorage with 4 and 5 degree temperatures in Fairbanks.
And Brettschneider states that April was one of the coldest month for the entire state.
Listen:
Brian Brettschneider The month when, typically, April is when we make the begin to transition into spring. It was, however, an extension of winter. It was one of the colder or fourth month ever recorded, which is about 10 degrees below the normal. However, in the western and central Interior the temperature was you know, anywhere from 14 to as high as 18, 19 degrees below average throughout the month, which is quite amazing. Even places like Nome have set a record-breaking lowest temperature record during this month in April. Many records were made within (the) western portion in the State.
Casey Grove: Very interesting, yeah. There were a lot of people who complained about it clearly. Perhaps this is a silly question, but is it only because of clouds, or is it because it was just cloudy more than usual?
Brian Brettschneider: Well, spring can be a struggle, due to when the sun is increasing its position over the horizon especially between mid-April and the end of April The temperature is extremely dependent on whether or not there’s snow on the ground. Thus, snow, in various ways, functions as mirrors, reflecting some of the solar energy back to space. If there’s snow on the ground it will be cooler than the airmass would normally allow it to reach. Because we had an extensive snowpack in several regions of the state it’s what’s known as an “positive feedback system.” It’s when we experience conditions that are below normal, and this prevents melting snow and the snow didn’t melt indicates that the weather stays more cool than it normally would be. From an atmospheric perspective we’ve just experienced an extensive area of continuous low pressure, which was in the state and the Bering Sea region, and this was preventing any type of warm air from moving across the state.
Casey Grove: Gotcha. So, how do we compare this spring to the previous springs? It’s true that some of these numbers seem pretty important but in the grand perspective, how significant are they really?
Brian Brettschneider: So, you know, when we look at March, April and May 2023 with other years, we’ll have be able to declare, “Yeah, this was less than what is average for the current timeframe,” which is 1991 to 2020. However, historically speaking, this should be fairly typical spring temperatures. We do have a retrospect bias to overcome. We’ve certainly experienced warmer springs in the in the past.
Casey Grove: No, I’m not kidding. I’m sure we talk about this frequently as well, and that the current situation or even in the last spring, really doesn’t have any significance when it comes to the long-term forecast for summer. It’s true that I think we discuss this in the context of wildfires as well since it doesn’t require many dry, hot, and sunny days to increase the danger of wildfires. To summarize, highlight that fact.
Brian Brettschneider and to continue on from that for those who live from the Fairbanks region will remember, 2004, was the year of wildfires. season in record time. In 2004, May was the most humid May Fairbanks was able to experience. Anchorage residents will remember the scorching summer of 2019, and how we were sucked up by smoke throughout the summer. It was also the wettest month ever recorded in Anchorage. We can be lulled in thinking “Oh it’s a good it’s so cool and wet,” and kind of attempt to make an extrapolation as to what the summer weather are and then discover that it was completely incorrect.
Casey Grove: Is that the prediction that June will be hotter than usual, is that due to the shifting of the El Nino type of pattern?
Brian Brettschneider It’s true that there are number of factors they consider when making the monthly and seasonal forecasts. One is that they examine what’s known as “dynamic model.” This is basically, “Here’s the initial conditions and how do we think it will change over the course of many weeks to a few months.” This is one of the aspects. A second is that they study trends, temperature trends, and trends, for instance sea ice and patterns and ocean temperatures and how this will affect (the future outlook). They also examine El Nino or La Nina conditions. Typically, during the course of an El Nino summer, Alaska can be a bit more warm than the norm. Particularly, the western portion of the state shows an increased likelihood of warmer than normal conditions. All of these factors go in the same pot once they create an annual and seasonal outlook.
Casey Grove: Okay, so Brian I’m now trying to be the angry Alaskan who felt that their spring was extremely cold. Perhaps to be able to comprehend that I’m trying to be a character in this situation. However, if that’s the case, because it was, in certain places, considerably colder than usual, doesn’t it suggest that global warming isn’t in fact occurring?
Brian Brettschneider The truth is, it is tempting to glance outside, and you know when you’ve got your jacket on and perhaps even gazing at the snowflakes that fall in the summertime to ask, “Well, what happened to global warming?” But we have to remember that even though we’re a large statethe largest of course, we’re just a tiny portion of the world. Most of the world is actually burning, in many instances literally, particularly in Canada. In the moment all the talk within the climate community is about how the oceans are essentially burning. What Antarctic sea ice is even in the dark for 24 hours is decreasing every day, but not growing. It’s a completely unexplored territory. We’re in a tiny space of cool nirvana, in comparison to the rest of the world.
