If there’s a specific type of extreme weather phenomenon that scientists can clearly have a connection with the climate, that’s that of the heat waves.
“They are becoming hotter,” claims Kai Kornhuber, adjunct scientist at Columbia University and scientist at Climate Analytics, a climate think tank. “They are happening more frequently and this increases the probability of successive hot waves.”
In Texas and Texas, Southern U.S. and Mexico in the Southern U.S. and Mexico three-week heat storm has engulfed the region, with temperatures dropping for days in consecutive days. Extreme heat also struck India, China and Canada with widespread wildfires burning.
“Most populace around the globe has been experiencing record-breaking heat over the last few weeks,” says Daniel Swain Climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.
This year, another factor adds fuel to the fire The El Nino climate pattern. This seasonal shift causes the world’s temperatures rise which could lead to 2023 becoming the hottest year on record.
More prolonged heat waves are more risky
The heat waves are already the most deadly weather-related catastrophe that has occurred in the U.S. Not only extreme temperatures can cause extreme dehydration and heat exhaustion and dehydration, but they also increase the possibility of having an attack on the heart and stroke. The risk of having a stroke or heart attack is greater in communities that are more deprived and have people of color as studies have found that temperatures are higher than white neighborhoods..
The temperature forecasts do not tell the full truth about the risks. When humidity is higher, the effect of heat on our bodies is more demanding. Forecasters attempt to measure this by using the warning on the heat index that shows how it actually feels like. However, that’s only calculated for people who is sitting in shade which is underestimating the risk for those working outdoors and other who are in the sun.
In recent times, scientists have conducted quick assessments to find out the extent to which heat waves are affected by changes in the climate. In some, they have found extreme temperatures that were almost impossible to achieve without climate change, as that of the Mediterranean in April as well as at the Pacific Northwest in 2021 and the United Kingdom in 2022.
El Nino is the exclamation point
This year, our planet also experienced a shift in the seasons towards one of the El Nino pattern. It occurs with the time that the ocean in the eastern and central Pacific is warming up. This extra heat can alter weather patterns, increasing temperatures across the globe.
“That’s its job within the climate systems of our planet, which is bringing some of the energy upwards from deep and then dispersing that energy into the air.” Swain says.
As El Nino just getting started this year, that the full impact isn’t seen until now in the form of heat waves or rain patterns. Typically it is the case that rain patterns are observed in the Southern U.S. gets wetter while it’s the Northern U.S. gets drier.
“That delay is due to the fact that it takes time to allow that additional warmth near the ocean’s surface to be absorbed into the atmosphere, and then be transported by wind currents” Swain says.
Climate scientists say the there are signs of a powerful El Nino this year, which could smash world records for temperature. The last eight years have been the hottest since record keeping began. And 2016was the record-breaking year for the hottest temperature also was one of the years with a powerful El Nino.
“Even even if it’s not expected to be among the hottest year on record, it’s certainly the warmest decade to date,” Kornhuber says. “That alone is enough of a concern.”
In the event that we continue to emit fossil fuels, such heat events are predicted to be more likely. Even if the world manages to achieve its goal of limiting the temperature of warming by 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) extreme heat waves are expected to be at least eight-fold more frequent than they were in the past..
“The longer-term driver is the human-caused climate change, where we’re essentially stepping into that ascending trend” Swain says. “El Nino is the climax of this trend.”
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