Juneau School District has more kindergarteners than anticipated this year. Birth rate data also shows that the trend is likely.
District projected that 390 kindergarteners would begin school this fall. But only 282 kindergarteners did. Cassee Olin (the district’s administrative service director) said that district leaders believed enrollment would be closer than pre-pandemic levels in this year.
Olin stated that he thought maybe there would be more people coming in because of the decreasing pandemic. Things were returning to normal in the classrooms. We aren’t wearing masks, and we’ren’t doing these things so [we] thought families would feel safer to return to classrooms and bring their children back to school span>
The state released data this month showing that the number of kindergarten-age children in Juneau and Alaska will continue to decline. Olin stated that Juneau School District might have to close or consolidate schools if this trend continues.
She said that the future planning will be affected by the font-weight of 400 ;”>”. “In the next three to four years there will be many decisions .”
Alaska’s fertility rate has been falling for many years, according to David Howell, a state demographer.
He said that around 2010, there were 2.3 children per woman. “Now, we have 1.9 children per women in Alaska. This is clearly not enough to replace our existing population. For a long period, Juneau’s fertility rate has been lower than that of the entire state span>
Howell stated that there could be many reasons for the decline. A lack of affordable childcare might lead to young couples deciding against having children in Juneau, and other Southeast communities. A lower number of births could be due to youth migration. The millennials who remain are growing older.
He said that millennials are now reaching the age where they will see fewer births. “Millennials are starting to reach the age where they’ll see fewer births .”
Juneau School District is not the only one with lower enrollment than anticipated. Anchorage school officials have used data on the birthrate to discuss possible school closings and other budget cuts.
Howell stated that it is too early to know if the overall decline in Alaska is beginning to slow down.
He said that the school-age kindergarten population will continue to decline due to the high number of births over the past five years.
Olin believes that declining enrollment in Juneau and Fairbanks, Anchorage, and other districts will demonstrate to the state legislature how important it is to increase public education funding.
In recent years, the base student allocation (the amount that each student school district receives from the state) has not increased significantly. Inflation has driven up costs.
“If there isn’t adequate funding, enrollment will continue to drop,” Olin stated. “Families are going to leave Alaska to get education that is being funded at the right level.”
She stated that enrollment projections for the 2023-2024 school year were in progress.
