State economists are forecasting little job growth in 2024 in Alaska in the new report that was released on Tuesday by the state’s department of labor. State officials anticipate that Alaska employers will add around 5,400 new jobs, which represents a 1.7 percentage increase.
After significant job losses in 2020, the number of employed has grown consistently since 2021, at greater than 2 percent a year. Department of Labor economist Karinne Wiebold, who wrote the report, claimed she was interviewed by the lower forecast for 2024 was a reflection of bigger developments.
“Really the main point here is that we’re done with COVID recovery. COVID recovery, the big picture and we’re now in this new stage that will see us receiving this infrastructure cash which has been sourced directly from federal governments under the Infrastructure (Investment and Jobs) Act and the Inflation Reduction Act,” Wiebold declared. “Those funds we’re hoping to see hitting the road in the coming year, and it’s going to be one the main drivers of growth in the coming year.”
Construction is predicted to create 1100 jobs, which is an increase of 6.7 percent. The mining industry and oil industries is an additional bright spot in the outlook, forecast to rise 8.7 percent, which is equivalent to 1,000 jobs. Economic experts point towards an brand new mine for gold in the vicinity of Tok which is scheduled to start production in 2015 and the preliminary work to be completed on to develop the Willow as well as the Pikka fields for oil.
As with any forecast there’s plenty on the horizon. Unexpected international or national recession could stifle on the number of tourists. In the case of infrastructure projects, delays could slow construction hiring. However, the most significant obstacle, Wiebold said, is the continuing shortage of labor. There are more jobs openings than people who are unemployed in the state.
“If there aren’t enough people who can fill those positions the jobs, in some sense, weren’t made,” she said. “So it’s the nature of wild card is: will there be people who can take on the roles in the areas and in the time they are needed?”
The report identifies two reasons that make the labor shortage particularly acute in Alaska. One reason is that a significant part of Alaska’s population is entering retirement. In addition, more working-age individuals between 18 and 64 are leaving the state rather than moving into it, particularly young families in their 20s and 30s.
From 2013 to 2022 the state’s population remained essentially stagnant, losing only about 1,000 people. In the same time when the population got older, Alaska saw the loss of the working age population of 30,000 as well as 18,000 positions, according Wiebold. Around 40% of these loss was due to the gas and oil industry, as per the state’s economic statistics.
And Wiebold states that even industries such as tourism and fish processing which tend to bring in employees from outside of the state may have a hard time finding workers.
“If we don’t manage to bring some of these workers from out of state into our country this year simply due to the fact that they have jobs which are more close to home, or even cost more and pay more, then we may be trying to fill positions in industries that depend on this out-of-state workforce” she added.
Wiebold mentioned the shortage of labor as one of the reasons jobs in the hospitality and leisure industry are projected to grow by just 1.4 percent even though cruise ship visitors are expected to surpass or even exceed the record set last year.
Manufacturing as well as finance and the information sector are likely to be lower than other industries, with zero growth, yet there is no forecast for the loss of workers.
The figures exclude people who are self-employed farmers, domestic workers, farm workers, family workers who aren’t paid as well as uniformed military personnel and the majority of commercial fishermen.
