According to new estimates released by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development on Thursday, Alaska’s population increased in 2022. This is the second consecutive year of growth after four years of declines.
After new data from U.S. Census Bureau showed that fewer people had moved to the state, state demographers retroactively increased the state’s 2021 estimated population.
“It was almost a bigger story that we retained fewer people for 2021” said David Howell, state demographer. “That’s more than the small change to 2022.”
Alaska’s new population estimate of 736,556 is the highest since 2018. However, the state continues having more people move out than in. Howell stated that 2022 was the 10th consecutive year with negative net migration.
Because the state had more births than deaths and out-migration, it was able to increase its population.
Nolan Klouda is the director of University of Alaska Center for Economic Development. He stated that the “glass half-full” argument is that outmigration is declining.
“And so, we could say that it’s a positive thing. He said that it was still far from being in neutral territory, or net positive immigration.
The state’s population figures provide a measure of its economy and can be used to forecast future demand for services such as roads, hospitals, ferries and schools.
Since state officials have access the Permanent Fund dividend data, while federal officials don’t, annual estimates from the state are more accurate than those released by the Census.
Klouda stated that it is a good indicator of economic health. People tend to vote with their feet, and choose to move to areas that offer more economic opportunity, more job growth, and more opportunities in general.
The political issue of population change is also one that can be addressed. Opponents of Gov. Mike Dunleavy criticized the governor’s policies for continued outmigration. However, that decline started before Dunleavy was elected.
Anchorage’s arguments about school closings included discussion of the state’s declining school-age population. This may have been discussed in legislative discussions regarding the state’s student-funding formula.
According to the annual demographic report published in January, the COVID-19 pandemic had an important impact on state demographics. It estimates the population as of July 1, the previous year.
Howell stated that “during the pandemic, just a little less people moved.”
He said, “And then you will see in 2021-2022, we have a big jump in both out-migrants to Alaska.”
According to the report, last year saw the highest number of in-migrants (2012-2013) and the lowest number of out-migrants (2016-2017). The departures are subtracted from the arrivals and the result is a loss in population of 2,489.
Despite this loss, the state saw an increase in population. There were 9,364 births, and 6,424 deaths. This natural increase of 2,940 was more than the number who left.
Add the natural increase to the migration and you get 451, which is the estimated state’s population growth between 2021-2022.
Twenty-four states experienced a decrease in births, but not natural. This trend is also evident in Alaska.
Although the state’s fertility rate, which is the number of births per woman in reproductive age, is higher than the national average, it has been decreasing for many years.
As the average state age increases, so has the state’s mortality rate. The new report shows that the state’s death rate has risen by nearly 1,000 over the previous year.
Some of this rise is due to COVID-19, but not all. The Department of Labor’s monthly trends reports show that Alaska’s elderly — those over 71 years old — now account for more than 7 percent of the state’s total population. This is an unprecedented high.
The percentage of children under 15 years old is now 22%, compared to 29% in 1990s.
Howell stated that the natural rate of growth is at its lowest point since the 1950s.
The state estimated that most cities and boroughs experienced small population declines between 2021-2022. Notable exceptions were the Matanuska–Susitna Borough, and Kenai Peninsula Borough.
More than 1,000 people have moved out of Fairbanks North Star Borough. Howell explained that the decline was partly due to Fort Wainwright’s preparation to deploy soldiers in 2021. This caused the population of the base to artificially increase while the state was counting.
Fairbanks, like other Alaska cities, has seen a decline in population due to people leaving the state.
Anchorage, the state’s largest, has fallen below 290,000. This is partly due to outmigration, and also because residents moved to Matanuska Susitna Borough which has a lower living cost and offers more housing.
Because of the high birth rate, some rural communities in Alaska have maintained stable populations. This is because long-term migration can be countered by stability. However, this effect is diminishing with falling birth rates. Populations were lower in the Nome Census Area and North Slope Borough, as well as in Northwest Arctic Borough.
“In Nome their births have fallen significantly.” Howell stated that both Nome and the Northwest Arctic Borough have seen a significant decline in their birth rates over recent years.
Skagway seemed to have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This tourist-dependent port depends on cruise ship visits. However, they were not available in 2020 and only limited in 2021.
Howell stated that they have fallen about seven and a quarter percent since 2020.
Although Neighboring Haines hasn’t experienced a significant decline in population, the Census Bureau may have undercounted its residents for 2020. Census data showed that there were just over 2000 residents. The state estimates that Haines has more than 2,500.
Officials from the city plan to challenge the Census estimate that is used to determine federal funding. Howell stated that the Department of Labor will assist in this challenge as necessary.
The Alaska Beacon originally published this story. It is republished with permission.
