Exxon scientists have accurately predicted the extent of global warming that would result from fossil fuel burning for decades, according to a new study published in Science .
These findings are in contradiction to an Exxon-funded, highly successful campaign for over 30 years that cast doubt on climate change caused by humans and the science behind it. This narrative contributed to the delay of federal and international climate action, even though climate change’s impacts were worsening.
Journalists and researchers have revealed that Exxon conducted in-house research over the past few years that proved it knew that humans-caused climate changes are real. This new study compared Exxon’s research to the actual warming.
Exxon’s climate research from 1977 to 2003 was analyzed by researchers at Harvard University and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. ExxonMobil is now ExxonMobil. The research shows that the company produced climate research that was at most as accurate as independent academics, and sometimes even better.
This is important as ExxonMobil, and other fossil fuel companies, could face lawsuits across the country claiming that they misled the public about the harmful effects of their products.
“The bottom line is that we found that they were modeling global warming with, frankly speaking, shocking levels of skill, especially for a company which then spent the next few decades denializing that very science,” said Geoffrey Supran who is now an associate professor of environmental policy at the University of Miami.
The Earth has already warmed by a little less than 1 degree Celsius (roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit), compared to the pre-industrial period of late 1800s. Extreme weather has been a result of this warming, including heat waves and droughts. Exxon’s modeling, however, showed this type of temperature rise.
“Specifically, we have done what Exxon knew: that burning fossil fuels would increase the temperature of the planet by around 0.2 degrees Celsius every decade,” Supran said.
ExxonMobil’s Response
Although ExxonMobil did not address the details in the paper, it did respond to the research.
“This issue has been brought up many times in recent years, and in each case, we have answered the same: those who talk of how Exxon Knew are wrong in their conclusions,” stated Todd Spitler, ExxonMobil spokesperson, in a statement.
The #ExxonKnew campaign aims to uncover what ExxonMobil knew.
Spitler stated that ExxonMobil has a better understanding of climate science than the wider scientific community. Spitler stated that “well-intentioned, internal policy discussions” were recast by “as an attempted company deception campaign.”
Spitler referred to an ExxonMobil 2019 case and highlighted page 37 of the 55page ruling. Justice Barry Ostrager, New York State Supreme Court, wrote:
“ExxonMobil employees and executives were consistently committed to executing their duties in the most thorough and meticulous manner …. The testimony of these witnesses showed that ExxonMobil is a company that values disciplined analysis, planning and reporting.”
The New York Attorney General’s Office did not prove that ExxonMobil violated state law or deceived investors. They allegedly downplayed the impact climate change would have on ExxonMobil’s finances.
NPR reported that Ostrager wrote at the time, “Nothing is intended to absolve ExxonMobil of responsibility for contributing to Climate Change through the emission of greenhouse gases in the production of fossil fuel products.” Ostranger also stated, “This is a securities fraud case and not a case of climate change.”
Research could help climate lawsuits
ExxonMobil’s argument that it didn’t mislead investors and the public about its knowledge about climate-warming effects from fossil fuels has a lot to stake.
More than 20 lawsuits have been filed against the company by local and state governments to recover damages from climate change. Baltimore was one of the first, and last year, Puerto Rico filed an racketeering suit against fossil fuel firms, industry groups, and others alleging they conspired with the public to mislead them about climate change.
Karen Sokol, a Loyola University law professor in New Orleans, said that this new research could add more evidence to those cases as they move through the courts.
Sokol says, “What Exxon scientists discovered and what they shared with company executives was nothing short than horrifying.” She believes that science is so complex, it should have been alarming for Exxon to alert policy-makers and the public.
Sokol says, “Imagine that world, and the different path that consumers, investors, and policymakers would take when they still had time,”
She claims that this is “significant evidence” that the deception and law-breaking on which many lawsuits are based is evident.
ExxonMobil, along with the wider fossil fuel industry, have tried to stop lawsuits by getting the states to pass laws that block municipalities from sueing, according to the Center for Climate Integrity.
The industry also has tried to move the cases to potentially-friendlier federal courts, arguing they’re of national significance. The U.S. The Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia refused to hear a case for 2020 brought by Delaware and Hoboken, N.J. Delaware sought damages for property damage caused by climate-induced sea rise and flooding. Hoboken seeks money to cover future and current costs.
ExxonMobil is the largest U.S.-based oil company and often comes under more scrutiny by activists. ExxonMobil now claims it is “committed” to solving climate change and the associated risks. Climate activists are skeptical, but one thing remains certain: legal challenges over questions about the company’s past of stalling climate action for many years will continue.
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