After making very little progress in 2022, the Juneau Assembly will discuss adopting new hazards maps next year. Rorie Watt, City Manager, stated that there was disagreement over one topic.
span style=”font weight: 400 Fundamentally the question is, what do we know about risk?” he stated.
Since their introduction in spring 2021, both residents and city officials have been reluctant to adopt the new hazards maps. Some people were shocked at what the maps revealed.
span style=”font weight: 400 We started the hazard map update innocently. Watt stated that we had bad maps and a FEMA grant. Let’s make new maps. Watt said, “And then they returned with new mapping information that doesn’t match the common person’s assessment of risk span>
These maps replace the current city maps that were adopted in 1987. The new maps place approximately half of downtown Juneau under a moderate to severe threat from damage or destruction by avalanches or landslides, or both.
The maps also distinguish between landslide and avalanche zones. The old maps combined both, but the new maps present four types of landslide hazards: moderate, severe, high, and low.
These maps are more detailed than the old ones. The study’s authors used a combination geologic mapping, historical event analysis and fieldwork to create them. They also provide a map that shows landslide dangers in some areas.
Starr Hill was one example. Some properties were upgraded from no slide hazard status to severe slide danger. Others were upgraded from moderately severe to severe. Many downtown homeowners have struggled to comprehend these changes.
This is partly because hazard maps can’t predict when landslides might occur. They describe the factors that make an area more susceptible to landslides, such as steepness, geology, and historical activity. These factors can be difficult to see and most of them are located far upslope than near or on the property at risk.
The authors of the report stress that humans don’t live to the same lengths as landslides and avalanches. For example, in moderate zones, landslides may occur every 10 to 100 year. This means that someone could live for decades without ever seeing one.
Watt states that the lack of specific information on the consequences and likelihood of landslides is a challenge for municipal policy.
Watt stated that the span style=”font weight: 400 What’s our rational basis for telling someone, you know, high or medium, low, severe? But we can’t tell about the likelihood of that?” Watt added. “We’re going fundamentally to tell people, you’re either able or not develop, more or less depending on these maps span>
Juneau’s land code restricts development to single-family homes in severely zoned areas. Property owners are also prohibited from increasing density. Watt also expressed concern about the possibility of updating maps having a negative effect on insurance, property values, and financing.
span style=”font weight: 400 I don’t believe it would make it impossible to obtain financing or insurance. Watt stated that Watt believed it could be more difficult.
Watt hopes the city planning commission will draft new building codes within the next six to eight month. However, he believes that prioritizing public involvement in the coming months is key.
“And I hope that process leads to something where most people say, okay it’s an imperfect universe, it’s complex, but it seems like a reasonable path forward.”
A memo sent to the Assembly last month Watt suggested a full adoption for avalanche hazards zones and a partial acceptance for landslides by limiting development in extreme zones. He hopes to provide avenues for residents to make suggestions about changes to the maps.
