An entire bunch consisting of Western Arctic Herd caribou pause before mountains within Kobuk Valley National Park during autumn migration in the year 2016. It is believed that the Western Arctic herd, one of the largest in the world is in decline for the last two decades. The census of 2023 shows that the decline is not stopping. The number of people living in the area is around a third of what they were in. (Photo from Kyle Joly/National Park Services)

The caribou herd that was once thought to have the highest number of animals of its kind in Alaska and, in some instances even the most extensive within North America has continued to shrink, which is in line with an overall pattern of Arctic on which scientists have linked at a minimum partially to climate changes.

It is estimated that the Western Arctic Caribou Herd population currently stands at 152,000, a decrease from 164,000 in the previous year according to the most recent study carried out by Alaska Department of Fish and Game and its partners.

The numbers of the herd’s population as well as changes were discussed during the annual gathering of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd Working Group which is an advisory group that represents village residents, hunters and conservation groups.

This herd stretches across an extensive area that extends across the North Slope and Chukchi Sea coast all the way to Interior Alaska, has long been a source of food as well as cultural values in several Indigenous communities. Its welfare is an issue for security of food and preservation of culture in a few regions.

The number of animals this year, calculated using photographic records, shows an ongoing downward trend from 2017when the herd’s was estimated to be 259,000.

“Within the shortest amount of time the caribou population has decreased by 100,000 from the population that is significant,” Alex Hansen, Fish and Game’s Kotzebue-based biologist who is responsible for monitoring the herd, informed the working group on Wednesday at the Anchorage meeting.

The Western Arctic herd size reached 490,000 by 2003.. In the last half-century its size has fluctuated between extremes, ranging from 242,000 in the year 1970 to 75,000 in the year 1976 before recovering after strict hunting regulations were implemented.

Hunting has been heavily restricted in recent times, and the working group has endorsed limitations that will remain in place.

Caribou herds forage on the top of a hill, which is located near the Hulahula River in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The Porcupine herd is now one of the biggest in Alaska. (Photo taken by Alexis Bonogofsky/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)

It’s not only the amount of caribou killed that is important for the potential of recovery of the herd, Hansen stressed in his presentation. It’s also crucial to not take females from the herd Hansen said.

“One cow has plenty of potential to create many more calves,” the speaker said. The message he conveyed in the PowerPoint presentation was reduced to a simple sentence: “Let cows live.”

However, Hansen said there were a variety of reasons certain hunters would prefer to hunt cows during the harvest, and these are usually occur in the fall, when the bulls are in a state of high hormones and focused on mating.

“Cows are overweight. They’re better eaten. No one wants to eat unsavory Bull,” he said.

Members of the group who are part of the Working Group stated that they believe there are tools to turn around the downward trend.

“By slowing the rate of decline right now I hope it doesn’t end up at the same low point that it did in 1976.” stated Charles Lean, a working group member from Nome.

Within the overall population estimates there are some additional developments.

In the case of females aged over 30 the survival rate is lower than the average for the long-term. However the rate of births of new calves is higher than the average for long-term pregnancy.

Migration patterns have changed dramatically in recent years, Kyle Joly, a National Park Service biologist who studies the herd stated in a talk for the Working Group.

Caribou in the herd generally found in the northern part of the winter and autumn months according to the monitoring carried out using radio signals. A lesser percentage of animals that are collared go south enough to traverse the Kobuk River, a site that was frequent transit points during the fall migration, data show. When they are crossing rivers, initial crossings have been a month longer than they were 10 years ago, he explained.

Herds declining across North America

It appears that Western Arctic herd’s decline is part of a larger trend.

Caribou groups throughout North America have been declining, as have the wild reindeer population across Arctic Eurasia. Scientists believe that that climate changes as well as industrialization are contributing factors to the usual broad fluctuations in the population. Climate change poses risks, such as the increase in rain-on-snow-related events that make traveling and foraging for food difficult. It is also replacing the lichens that are low lying and other plants which caribou eat with woody plants. Industrial development has splintered habitat, resulting in roads and other infrastructures which have impeded the movement of caribou.

Some of the most severe caribou herd crash incidents have occurred in Canada.

The George River Caribou Herd is located in areas in Quebec and Labrador was estimated to be around 800,000 in the 1990s. However, it is reduced to just 7,200 animals as of the end of the end of last year. The herd was at one time the largest in the world. herd.

The Bathurst Caribou Herd in Canada’s Northwest Territories declined from 186,000 in 2003 to 6,240 by 2021 according to territorial authorities. A few Canadian herds are already declared extinct, while others are identified by the federal authorities there as in danger..

Together with herds of Western Arctic herd, other significant Alaska herds have decreased in the past, as Joly mentioned in a talk to members of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd Working Group.

The Fortymile herd in the eastern part of Interior Alaska has declined by more than 50% over six years. The Nelchina herd, which is also located in the eastern part of Interior Alaska, has dropped by 80% over four years. Likewise, the Mulchatna herd of Western Alaska is down by 98 percent from the size of 1990 in accordance with his report.

With the decline of herds in Western Arctic as well as other herds. This means that herds like the Porcupine Caribou Herd as potentially the largest in North America. The Porcupine herd spans the northeastern part of Alaska and the neighboring regions of Canada It is famous for its use of the small Arctic National Refuge coastal plain for calving each year.

However, the most recent numbers regarding the Porcupine herd aren’t available. The last official census of photos that put the estimated population at 218,000 was conducted in 2017.

Similar to the Porcupine herd Two additional North Slope herds appear to have escaped the decline trend.

The Central Arctic Caribou Herd, that has fluctuated in size over the years, reached its peak in 2010 with 68,000 animals. It then decreased to 23,000 animals in 2016, before doubling to more than 34,000 by 2022 according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. There is a Teshekpuk Caribou Herd is located all year in the North Slope, The Teshekpuk Caribou herd increased from 4000 in 2011 and was 61,000 by 2022 as per the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.



This article was originally published in Alaska Beacon and is republished here with permission.