LOS ANGELES (CA) — The holiday season is likely to be dry and unseasonably hot, especially in Southern California according to the most recent update from the National Climate Prediction Center.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, very little rain is expected in the Southland. Instead, lingering La Nina conditions are expected to keep the area dry from December to February.

Jon Gottschalck of the climate center’s operational prediction branch said that it should not surprise that the winter outlook matches typical La Nina impacts. These include a warmer and drier South and a cooler and wetter North.

The state’s wettest months are December, January, and February. They produce half its annual rainfall, while the Sierra snowpack stores water year-round. The agency published a U.S. winter outlook in October, which spells trouble for the state that is currently suffering from drought.

According to Mike Halpert (Deputy Director of Climate Prediction Center), “Another dry winter will certainly not be good news for California.”

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This persistent weather pattern means that Southern California, from Santa Barbara to San Diego and Riverside counties, has the greatest chance of experiencing a dry winter.

The 90-day outlook map depicts the northern half in white. This means that the region will have equal odds of experiencing a dry winter or a wet one.

The same season’s temperature outlook indicates that most counties in the central and southern regions of California will have warmer than average temperatures.

The outlook map shows that the odds of a warmer winter for the Bay Area and further north is just slightly lower than the chances of a cold one.

” A forecast of equal probabilities in [Northern California] does not mean that historical forecast reliability and current climate signals in your area don’t permit for a confident forecast shift in climatological probability,” Jon Gottschalk from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Forecasting Branch told SF GATE. The odds of each category being affected are currently 33%. No clear shift either way unfortunately. The area is known for its high variability and unpredictable outcomes during La Nina winters. Therefore, equal chances are forecast.

(NOAA)

According to meteorologists, the state would experience a third of La Nina if their predictions are true. This would mark the third consecutive year that the weather phase has remained for at least three years since records began in 1950.

It’s not just the Golden State that will feel the effects from La Nina. Each state is likely to experience higher temperatures, with varying degrees.

(NOAA)

According to Ellen Bartow Gillies, a scientist from NOAA, California was the seventh-warmest state in the period for October. This was according to the agency’s monthly climate briefing.

She stated that the October precipitation total for contiguous U.S.A. was 1.66 inches. This is half an inch less than the average and ranks in the driest three of the historical records.

Golden State also had its 11th driest month of October in this year.

La Nina, which is opposite to El Nino, is a cooler weather phase. The combination of El Nino, La Nina, and the neutral condition is called ENSO. Scientists have confirmed that they have one the greatest natural effects on climate. They can sometimes augment or dampen the large effects of human-caused global warming from the burning of oil, coal, and gas.

It is rare to have three consecutive years of a La Nina event. The cooling effect of the La Nina event temporarily slows the rise in global temperature, but does not stop or reverse the long-term warming trend,” Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization said.

La Nina will likely worsen drought-ravaged California, despite September’s tropical storm and some sporadic rainfall in October and November.

Another season of La Nina will also limit the possibility of atmospheric rivers, storm systems that are responsible for heavy rainfall in California.

The U.S. Drought Monitoring Center reports that most of the state is in severe drought conditions. A cluster of central counties are experiencing extreme drought conditions, which is the highest ranking on the ranking system. Numerous other counties that run through inland central California were also under severe drought conditions.

” This is our third year in a drought extreme across much of the western U.S.A. Brad Pugh, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s operational drought lead, stated that the drought was affecting much of California, the Great Basin, and even parts of Oregon during an October news briefing, according to the Times. It’s adversely affecting agriculture, increasing wildfire danger, and even having an impact on tourism, in terms of its impacts.

@abc7ny Meteorologist Dani Beckstrom runs through the NOAA Winter Outlook for 2022-2023. #abc7ny #weatherornot #winter #fyp #weather #winterweather ♬ original sound – ABC7NY